a. For emissions scenario RCP85 (representative concentrations pathway with +8.5 W/m2 radiative forcing by 2100):
i. Describe the fossil CO2 time series for the 21st Century.
ii. On the next page, choose Standard run mode, CMIP3: DEFAULT for the Climate Parameters and C4MIP: DEFAULT for the Carbon Cycle settings. Click Advance Settings and report the Climate Sensitivity. (This is one place where you can change parameters for your own experiment - see d-g and j below).
iii. Click Next to run the model. What is the global average temperature anomaly in 2100?
iv. Click on the file symbol
to download the output files. Download
the DAT_SURFACE_TEMP.OUT file and rename it for this
experiment.b. Repeat the same experiment in a. for the RCP3-PD (which as well goes by the name RCP2.6) scenario.
c. Using Excel, Matlab, or by hand, plot on the same graph the global-mean temperature anomaly for the two experiments above for 1765-2100. How do they compare? Why are they different?
d. Repeat a. with a climate sensitivity of half of the standard one.
e. Repeat a. with a climate sensitivity of twice the standard one.
f. Repeat b. with a climate sensitivity of half of the standard one.
g. Repeat b. with a climate sensitivity of twice the standard one.
h. Add the results of experiments d-g to the graph you did in part c. This will result in a graph with 6 curves. Create another version of the graph with time only going from 2000 to 2100, so as to see the results more clearly. Include both graphs with your assignment. How do the results compare? Why are they different? Are the differences linear?
i. Repeat a. and b. with the Probabilistic, Multi-model ensemble option. Do a screen capture and present each of these results. Is the spread between models as large as the differences caused by the different scenarios?
j. Design and carry out your own experiment to elucidate the climate response. Describe what you did, why you did it, and your results.