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11:670:461 |
Homework # 4 |
October 19, 2015 |
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Due October 26, 2015 |
Show All Your Work.
Download the MAGICC model and install it on your PC.
Be sure to follow the instructions in
the user
manual.
OR
Go to live.magicc.org, register, and
then conduct the following experiments. For a description of the emission
scenarios, see
http://wiki.magicc.org/index.php?title=Online_Emission_Scenarios.
a.
For emissions scenario RCP8.5 (representative concentrations pathway with +8.5
W/m2 radiative
forcing by 2100):
i. Describe the fossil CO2
time series for the 21st Century.
ii. On the
next page, choose Standard run mode, CMIP3: DEFAULT for the Climate Parameters
and
C4MIP: DEFAULT for the Carbon Cycle settings. Click Advance Settings
and report the Climate Sensitivity. (This is one place where you can
change parameters for your own experiment - see d-g and j below).
iii. Click Next to run the model. What is the global average
temperature in 2100?
iv. Click on the file
symbol 
to download the
output files. Download the DAT_SURFACE_TEMP.OUT file and rename it for
this experiment.
b. Repeat the same experiment in a. for the
RCP3-PD (which as well goes by the name RCP2.6) scenario.
c. Using
Excel, Matlab, or by hand, plot on the same graph the global-mean temperature
for the two experiments above for 1765-2100. How do they compare?
Why are they different?
d. Repeat a. with a climate sensitivity of half
of the standard one.
e.
Repeat a. with a climate sensitivity of twice the standard one.
f.
Repeat b. with a climate sensitivity of half of the standard one.
g.
Repeat b. with a climate sensitivity of twice the standard one.
h. Add
the results of experiments d-g to the graph you did in part c. This will
result in a graph with 6 curves. Create another version of the graph with
time only going from 2000 to 2100, so as to see the results more clearly.
Include both graphs with your assignment. How do the results compare?
Why are they different? Are the differences linear? (That is, is the
climate response proportional to the forcing and to the sensitivity?)
i. Repeat a.
and b. with the Probabilistic, Multi-model ensemble option. Do a screen
capture and present each of these results. Is the spread between models as
large as the differences caused by the different scenarios?
j. Design and carry out your own experiment
to elucidate the climate response. Describe what you did, why you did it, and
your results.
Turn in a report of your results, including sample figures.
Prepared by Alan Robock (robock@envsci.rutgers.edu)
- Last updated on October 16, 2015