11:670:461

Homework #5

October 24, 2019

Due November 4, 2019

Show All Your Work.

  1. Go to https://www.meted.ucar.edu/climate/cvc_lectures/lectures.htm (If you don't already have a UCAR account, just sign up for one for free) and watch:

    the ENSO lecture by Michelle L'Heureux, and
    the MJO lecture by Jon Gottschalk

    Your first consulting job is to serve as a climate advisor for a reality show that will be filmed outdoors in two different remote locations, Kiribati and Brunei.  There will be two episodes in each place, one that will require it to be raining, and the other when it must not be raining.  Taking into account the characteristics and the predictability of the MJO and ENSO for each desired weather, for how far in advance for each location can you provide a forecast with a 75% confidence in your forecast?  With a 90% confidence?  Explain how you came to your decision.

    Be sure to watch the videos before the October 31st class.  Be prepared to discuss the above questions in class that day, and then write up your answer after that class and turn it in on November 4.



Prepared by Alan Robock (robock@envsci.rutgers.edu) - Last updated on October 23, 2019