PEACE IN THE NEW YEAR

E-mail:

2582 Crestview Road

Alan:  robock@envsci.rutgers.edu

Manasquan, NJ 08736 USA

Sherri:  swest@brookdalecc.edu

December 31, 2008

Telephone:  (732) 528-0064 (home), (732) 881-1610 (cell Alan), (732) 881-1609 (cell Sher)

To see previous years’ messages and pictures, go to http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock/1999 or http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock/2000 or http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock/2001 or http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock/2002 or http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock/2003 or http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock/2004 or http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock/2005 or http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock/2006 or http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock/2007

BE SURE TO CLICK ON UNDERLINED LINKS TO SEE PICTURES

Alan:   Obama Won!!!  Barack Hussein Obama will be our next President!!!  I am still delirious that we will have an intelligent President who believes in using science to inform policy rather than stifling science to carry out political goals.  Sherri is too.  I am very optimistic that many aspects of our national and international lives will get better very soon under his leadership.  On just about every issue, Obama has the right values and the right ideas.  A year ago Sherri came back from a political meeting with The Audacity of Hope and an Obama bumper sticker.  I read the book and was overwhelmed with his intelligence and political savvy.  I immediately put the sticker on my car and started to support him early in the primaries.  I am rather surprised that he won and proud of my country for understanding that he is the best candidate.  I think Hillary would have been a good President, too, but Obama will be a great President.  And whoever the President is makes a huge difference.  Check back a year from now or five years from now to see if my optimism is justified, but I think with his leadership we can make the world a better place.  Yes we can. 

     The biggest problem in the world is still nuclear weapons.  As my recent work on the climatic effects of regional and global nuclear war shows, even a nuclear war between India and Pakistan  using less than 0.3% of the current global nuclear arsenal would produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history.  And the current Russian and U.S. arsenals can still produce global nuclear winter.  My colleague Brian Toon and I have been trying to get this message out, to make sure that US policy makers and the rest of the world know that we have to solve this problem so that we have the luxury of worrying about global warming. We got ourselves invited to Washington for two days in June, sponsored by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), to give briefings to Congress, the State Department, and anti-nuclear groups.  This one-page handout is still accurate, but we left feeling like we were just amateurs as lobbyists.  Nevertheless we keep trying.  We were both on a Discovery Channel show in October called Apocalypse How.  Several of my students told me they saw it, and even my mailman and the waiter at my favorite sushi restaurant told me they saw me on the show.  We also published a paper in the December 2008 Physics Today describing the latest work, which showed that even by 2012, when American and Russian arsenals are down to 6% of the high level in the 1980s, we could still produce nuclear winter.  And we have secured an invitation to write an article on this topic for Scientific American, which will appear sometime in 2009.  On January 2, I will also film my part in a new feature film about nuclear weapons, being done by the same folks who did Al Gore's movie, An Inconvenient Truth.  In addition, I wrote an article on nuclear winter for the Encyclopedia of Earth, which describes itself as "Wikipedia with quality control."  But I decided that in addition to all of the above, I would try to use modern tools to propagate our work, so I made my first YouTube video, seen here.  It is only 55 seconds, and very low-tech, but as of today it has been seen by more than 1,460 viewers.  To see the complete video, with the additional comments, click here.  What do you think?

    As I noted last year, I was named the American Meteorological Society/Sigma Xi Distinguished Lecturer for 2008-2009.  This means I will be on a list of speakers available for talks around the country, and I expect to have several invitations to talk about nuclear winter, climate change, and geoengineering.  So far I have talked at Washington College (Maryland) and SUNY Purchase College (New York), and have plans to give lectures at the University of South Dakota, South Dakota State University, Appalachian State University, Ramapo College, Quinnipiac University, Marquette University, and Truman State College (Missouri).  It is nice to be able to give talks to people interested in my work.

    Things continue to go well at Rutgers.  Two students, Chaochao Gao and Elif Sertel, a Fulbright Scholar from Istanbul Technical University completed their Ph.D.s with me.  And I was invited to  Istanbul in January to serve on Elif's committee.  I am working hard on my National Science Foundation grant to study geoengineering with Gera Stenchikov and Martin Bunzl at Rutgers and Rich Turco at UCLA.  I helped Richard Anyah to get an NSF grant to study climate change and hydrology in the Greater Horn of Africa, but he got a job at the University of Connecticut and took the second and third years with him.  I had hoped to continue to work with him on the project, but have not heard from him since he left.  I am working with graduate student Ben Kravitz on the geoengineering project, and helped him to get trips to NCAR in the summer for a numerical modeling workshop and to Taiwan this fall for a conference on the COSMIC satellite system.  I am also working with a senior undergrad, Allie Marquardt, on geoengineering.  I hope to have funding for two new students next year, if current proposals I have sent out are funded.  I published five refereed journal articles this year, and have three more submitted.  If you are interested in more information or want to read them, visit my home page and click on Publications.

    I continue to serve as the Director of the Meteorology Undergraduate Program.  We continue to have many new students each year enroll who are interested in Meteorology.  We were able to establish a Living-Learning Community for next Fall, where Meteorology students will live together and have access to a broadcast studio for regular weather broadcasts and feature presentations.  We were able to get permission to search for two new faculty members, and I hope that by this time next year I can report that the searches were successful.

    I got several mentions in the press this year and was on several cable TV shows, including the History Channel, “Volcanic Winter,” part of the Mega Disasters series, in June; three shows on the  Discovery Channel "Discovery Project Earth" 9-part series in August and September, “Engineering the Future” (on geoengineering), “Raining Forests,” (on deforestation), and “Infinite Winds,”  (on geoengineering); and the Discovery Channel, “Apocalypse How,” discussing nuclear winter, volcanic eruptions, and global warming, in October.  I or my work was mentioned multiple times in newspaper and magazine articles, including Mother Jones, Público, salon.com, NASA's website, wired.com, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Home News-Tribune, Manchester Guardian, Popular Mechanics, Bulletin of Science Policy News, Toronto Star, La Repubblica, Wired, newstrackindia.com, Australian Broadcasting Corporation News in Science, Christian Science Monitor, National Geographic News, Physics Today, RealClimate.org, Science News, Daily Targum, Popular Mechanics (again), CSN News, blackhillsportal.com, KQED San Francisco, Spiegel Online, Le Monde, Thể Thao Văn Hóa - Vietnam, The Huffington Post, and Discovery News.

    As President of the Atmospheric Sciences Section of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) I once again organized a Chinese banquet at our Fall Meeting, but this time with entertainment from one of my favorite singers, Christine Lavin.  She kept referring to Russ Dickerson, who originally introduced me to her music, as "the gentleman with the beautiful white hair."  We had a record number of attendees and it was very successful.  I also organized the Bjerknes Lecture by Jim Hansen, who packed a very large room and gave a great update on global warming issues.  Because Sherri broke her kneecap the week before (see below), she and Dan were not able to join me, but I did see Brian and Ginger, who are doing fine.

    I was named a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) this year, a nice honor.  AAAS is the largest scientific organization in the world, and publishes Science, but many people are not members, as they get Science for free through their organizations.  I am also candidate for Chair of the Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences Section of AAAS, and should find out soon if I won.  This will give me a chance to attend their meetings and arrange sessions, although they tend to be in cold places (in Chicago in February in 2009).

    Our solar panels (photovoltaic) were finally turned on and started saving us money on our electric bill.  Here is a graph of our electric bill for 2008 as compared to what it would have been without the panels.  I figure we will save about $2000/year on the bills and generate another $3000/year in renewable energy certificates which the electric company has to buy from us.

    We were able to take many nice trips again this year, including three to the Middle East at the beginning of the year.  In January we went to Istanbul, where my student Elif Sertel and her brother took us on a trip up the Bosphorus to Anadolu Kavaği, a 14th century fort at the entrance to the Black Sea where they and we posed in the most scenic location and I met the sunset.  We had pastry better than baklava, saw the spectacular Süleymaniye Mosque and Blue Mosque, the Egyptian Spice Bazaar, the old Roman cistern, and the Whirling Dervishes, and met her friend Hande Demirel (shown in photo at left by Elif's husband, Tolga).  Istanbul is a fabulous city, mixing modernity with Islamic, Christian, and Jewish traditions amidst Roman and Egyptian relics, living together in peace.  Mustafa Kemal Atatürk is still the national hero, and we saw his picture everywhere.  We were sorry we only had one week, and next time would like to explore more of Turkey.  The people were all very nice, the food was great, and we recommend the visit to anyone.  In January, I also attended the American Meteorological Society Meeting in New Orleans, where Dian Seidel, Sureyya, Jennifer Francis, Cristina Archer and others took Bob Bornstein out for dinner to celebrate him receiving the Helmut E. Landsberg Award, and I took 20 Rutgers undergrads to dinner at Jacques-Imo's, sitting at several tables, including the first ride for most of them on the streetcar, which had just been put back in service.

    In February we went to a conference at the Ein Gedi kibbutz above the Dead Sea in IsraelBaby and adult irexes were native to the region.  In Jerusalem we saw a bakery unlike those at home, Eleanor Roosevelt's signature on the floor of the King David Hotel, me standing nearby, the Dome of the Rock, the Wailing Wall, with the men praying, a church across from the Temple Mount, Sherri touching the stone from which Jesus rose to Heaven, and Yad Vashem (no pictures allowed).  We went floating in the Dead Sea.  When I was there 35 years ago, it was much larger, but since all the water formerly running into if from the Jordan River is now being diverted, it is evaporating at a rate of about 1 meter per year.  This means the lake is a great distance from the former shore, and that it has become so salty that salt is precipitating out on the bottom.  This also means that it is so dense that it is impossible to sink.  Another thing tourists do there, like Sherri, Chuck Long, and Warren Wiscombe, is to cover themselves with mud.  It is 400 meters below sea level, the lowest place on Earth, with the highest atmospheric pressure I have ever experiencedMasada was nearby.  At the top and on the gondola going down we saw rare rainbows.  In the middle of our visit, we saw this newspaper headline, but luckily nothing else happened before we left.

    In March, we made our now annual trip to Paris and once again had a great time.  In April, I went to the University of Virginia to give a talk, and stopped in Hampton on the way back to give another talk and see Sherri's sister, Gina.  I also gave invited talks at the University of Oklahoma and Purdue University.  I really liked my visit to Purdue - it had a great Midwestern campus feel which I miss.   I also went to Austin for a UCAR meeting and stayed to give a couple lectures.

    In May I made a brief visit to Boulder for the retirement party for Dave Hofmann.  In May, we also went to Egypt. Of course we saw the pyramids in Giza, and the Sphinx, where Sherri even took a camel ride.  In Cairo we saw the Muhammad Ali Mosque, which is not as big or beautiful as those in Istanbul.  We flew to Luxor, where we saw the Temple of Karnak during the day, which even had a dust devil, and at night, went across the river to the Valley of the Kings with its most famous, but not most spectacular, tomb, and the Tomb of Queen Hatshepsut, then boarded a boat like this for a ride up the Nile to Aswan, where we were welcomed to the high dam.  This is our boat and these are a village along the way and a larger town, and a sunset on the Nile.  At one point, many guys showed up in small boats to sell stuff to the tourists.  They polluted the air with diesel fumes and noise to pump water for irrigation.  Here are Sherri and Horus in front of one of the giant temples along the way.  I also left for the Spring AGU Meeting in Ft. Lauderdale the day after we got back.

    In June we visited Sherri's brother in St. Louis and then drove to Bloomington, Indiana for my 42nd high school reunion. It was not well attended, but we visited our old house, with me sitting in the front, which is now being renovated by the new owners.  I also went with Sherri and Tony to London (also discussed below) where we dined at a pub, visited the Tower of London, the Tower Bridge, the O2, and the Thames Barrier, and saw Jersey Boys, which was spectacular, with great sound and even Joisy accents.  Fortunately, demonstrations like this will not be needed in the future.

    On the Fourth of July, I used the fireworks setting on our new camera to take this picture and this one at the Manasquan beach near our house.  We also visited Brian and Ginger in San Francisco, as Sherri discusses below.  We went to Wisconsin with my family in August.  We stayed at a resort on Elkhart Lake, where Jerry, Lisa, and I had spent two summers at Camp Brosius.  One day we canoed across the lake to visit, and saw one of the old war canoes we used to use.  Jerry helped me play golf, and I played tennis two days in a row with my father, age 93, and with Max, Sherri and Hanne.  Here are the younger cousins.  One day we drove to Berlin and Redgranite where my father grew up.  In Berlin we visited Goodrich Home Furnishings, formerly my grandfather's business, where they still remembered my father.  In Redgranite we saw the quarry, now a popular swimming hole, and my father's old house, where he was born.  A former neighbor across the street still remembered him and his brother.  Afterwards, we drove to Sheboygan where my father and Hanne, and Dan, Sherri and I, had lunch.  We then spent a couple days with our friends and my old college roommates, Ian and Norma.  We spent a day in Madison, where we had a beer on the Union Terrace, visited our old apartment at 521 W. Mifflin St., and saw the now defunct food co-op.

    In August, Sherri and I went to Iceland, unfortunately for us before the economy collapsed, so it was quite expensive.  Here is Sher by a statue of a Viking ship.  The President of Iceland, Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, addressed our conference, and knows much more about climate change than our current President.  Sherri, our volcano friend Libby, and I had tapas, including whale and puffin.  And Sherri and I had the most expensive, and best, meal we ever had at the Seafood Restaurant, including this appetizer and this dessert.  They even had outdoor cafes in Reykjavik.  We went on a field trip around a fjord, where the sheep only went on the left side of the road.  And we had the conference banquet in the Perlan (Pearl), built on the top of water tanks.  We went to a sports bar where we saw Iceland have their greatest sports triumph ever, winning the semifinals of Olympic handball.  But then I was dragged to the tourist trap, the Blue Lagoon, where the took the wastewater output from a geothermal power plant, and have people bathe in it and smear white mud on their faces.  I also took a quick trip to Raleigh, North Carolina to review a report for EPA, and in October I went to the annual UCAR meetings in Boulder.

    One of the nice things that came out of the Iceland meeting was an opportunity to join a research program on volcanoes and the Arctic.  This involved a two-day trip to Edinburgh, Scotland, in October, where I met with the group and stayed with Thor Thordarson and his wife Whitney, who was a wonderful hostess.  She also not only had Bush National Embarassmints, but also Indictmints and Impeachmints.  We talked about how great it would soon be when Obama won, and he did.  I also came home and wrote an NSF proposal for this project, and will know in another few months if it is successful.

    In November, Sherri and I went to Madison to surprise Ian on his 60th birthday.  Gene and Ellen also came from California.  It was very cold, but Wisconsin won the football game in the second half.  Here we are all when the game began, and here are only the guys left for the second half.  The next day we walked along the lake, saw a historical monument from our time in Madison (if that doesn't make you feel old!), and took a tour of the State Capitol, where I found a painting of Increase Lapham, from Wisconsin, who founded the US Weather Bureau.  In December I attended the AGU meeting in San Francisco, discussed above.

    I saw Bob Dylan for the 40th time in August, this time with Sherri at the Convention Center in Asbury Park.  It was a great place to see him, but the sound system was not very good.  I continue to be a fan of his weekly Theme Time Radio Hour on XM radio, which I record.  If you want to listen, please let me know.  We also saw Arlo Guthrie from the front row at the McCarter Theater in Princeton.

    Wisconsin did not go to the Rose Bowl again this year, but were in the ChampsSports Bowl (I never heard of it either) where they were thrashed by Florida State.  But the most embarrassing game was at the beginning of the season when Wisconsin lost to Michigan.

Sherri:  Travel and travail have dominated 2008 for me.  During this past year, as you’ve already seen, we visited Istanbul, Israel, Paris, Egypt, London, San Francisco, and Reykjavik, so a busy, busy year.  Since I teach Modern Middle Eastern History, visits to Istanbul, Israel, and Egypt were wonderful places to learn and to capture images to bring to my students.  And the visit to Egypt was actually work for me, as I and a colleague led a group of 28 students on a 10-day tour of Cairo and a Nile Cruise last May.  Thanks to George Bush’s trip to Sharm el Sheik at the same time, our group was bumped from a hotel in Giza to a snazzier one in the heart of Cairo, so we were able to sample the wonderful flavor of the place.  Egyptians are warm, and the culture was as fascinating for me as the ancient sites.  Because our schedule was so intense, with many early morning wakeups, a delinquent student could have really messed things up, but they were fantastic, punctual, interested, and fun to be with.  And the shopping, so much fun!

            Since our 2005 sabbatical we’ve returned to Paris once a year, which we’ve planned again for our spring break in March.  Can never get enough of those baguettes!  We visited Brian and Ginger in July and stayed in their new home in San Rafael, rode Segways on Angel Island (even with no hands) with stunning views of San Francisco, had dinner with a high school friend, Marilyn, and helped them with some house projects.  Here are Dan, Brian and Ginger in Union Square.  They have a nice three-bedroom starter home, two dogs and now two cats.  They even made dinner for us, which we ate on their back patio.  Brian continues to work with Secret Level, a videogame company, and Ginger just got a promotion in her job as a nurse at the Veterans Hospital.  We had to cancel a trip to visit them this December because of the travail I’ll mention later, but we hope to see them soon.  Brian still hopes to publish his children’s stories, so if anyone knows a publishing house looking for material, please get in touch!

            My work also took me to a World History Association Conference in London in June.  I, along with colleague Tony Snyder, with whom I’ve been teaching at Brookdale Community College for over 30 years, participated in a panel on the “Millenial Student,” and, beyond that, we enjoyed staying in the East End in London, saw “Jersey Boys,” visited Greenwich, where we saw the H-2 Harrison clock and this H-2 obscenity, the British Museum, and had surprisingly great food (much of it Indian) and wonderful weather.  I continue to be active in the WHA regional affiliate and this past October we organized a one-day conference at a community college in Maryland.  Next year will be my 35th year of teaching at Brookdale, and, while I think about retirement, I continue to enjoy what I’m teaching, mostly the World History survey courses and the Middle Eastern History, so have no definite plans to retire now.

            This past year was also a time for family visits.  In June we visited my brother, Tom, and his family in St. Louis, took in a Cardinals game, and then went to Bloomington for Al’s high school reunion.  In August we spent a weekend in Wisconsin with Al’s family, and enjoyed lots of cheese, Badger Tracks ice cream, and a wonderful weekend on the lake.  We visited Al’s Dad’s hometown of Berlin, and saw the house where he grew up.  We also visited Al’s Wisconsin roommate and his wife in Milwaukee, whom we may see again at the Inauguration.  Finally, I attended my 45th high school reunion in October, stayed with my sister Gina, celebrated my 63rd (Yikes!) birthday with her, her kids and my other sister, Jeffy, and saw high school friends like Candy Familant.  Here are Gina, Jeffy and me, with John, Jamie, and Dean.

            While in Virginia I also campaigned for Obama, and what excitement there!  I made calls to volunteers and walked a section of Newport News trying to get more volunteers and votes.  It worked, because shortly after my visit there, the polls started to turn for Obama!  In New Jersey, his election was a done deal, so I spent much of the campaign season working for our local candidates, who were not as successful, but the fact remains that we live in a very Republican town and have to keep working to grow Democrats.  My students were very excited about the election, however, and it was wonderful to see the energy among them, their pride at casting their first vote.  I am the advisor for the Campus Democrats, who worked for Obama and who will go to the Inauguration to help celebrate.  Initially I was a Hillary supporter and voted for her in the New Jersey primary, but after Obama’s March speech on race, and reading his autobiography, I realized his extraordinary leadership, and, the more I see of his Cabinet choices and his general view of the world, the more I like.  I truly look forward to a saner 2009!

            As for the travail, two things to report.  Dan is recovering from depression and panic disorder that has occurred periodically over the past two years, but really brought him down in September.  Since then, he has been on temporary disability and working to get the right treatment.  He’s doing better now, thinking about future options, but 2008 has been a difficult one for him.  I took a 12-week course for families with loved ones with mental illness, and that has helped me better understand a range of issues associated with Dan’s, and others’ conditions, as well as available resources.  I am hopeful that 2009 will see Dan set some goals that will lead him to a more fulfilling life.

            Dan did a great job caring for me in my other travail.  On December 11th, en route to visit the mother of a friend at a nearby rehab center, I slipped and broke my right kneecap.  After surgery, I am now recuperating nicely, and both Dan and Alan have been good nurses, cooks, drivers, cleaners....  I’m actually not anxious to recover too quickly, in fact!  Dan and I had to cancel our trip to San Francisco, which made me feel sorry for myself for a few days, but so many friends came to visit, sent flowers, brought food, and continue to call, that I consider myself very fortunate. Thanks to all of you that thought of me and my family.  My prognosis is a good one, with the prospect of gaining full function within the next month.  One big issue is whether to attend the Inauguration on Jan. 20th.  Thanks to Al’s Dad (and Senator Feingold), we were able to score two tickets to the event, but we are concerned that the enormous hassle of it will take it toll on my knee. But I’m such a political animal, the thought of not being there is also difficult.  Send me your advice; what would you do?

            Surrounded by my anti-Bush paraphernalia, from the “Countdown Clock,” to the “Indictmints,” to the fabulous book, Goodnight, Bush, January 20th can’t come quickly enough for me.  I hope you enjoy the celebration as much as I plan to, wherever I am on that day, and please stay safe in 2009 and keep in touch.

May your 2009 be a healthy and fulfilling one.  Happy New Year!

Love,
Alan and Sherri