Robock et al., 1993
Robock, Alan, Richard P. Turco, Mark A. Harwell,
Thomas P. Ackerman, Rigoberto Andressen, Hsin-shih Chang and
M. V. K. Sivakumar, 1993: Use of general circulation model
output in the creation of climate change scenarios for impact
analysis. Climatic Change, 23, 293-335.
Many scientific studies warn of a rapid global climate change
during the next century. These changes are understood with much
less certainty on a regional scale than on a global scale, but effects
on ecosystems and society will occur at local and regional scales.
Consequently, in order to study the true impacts of climate change,
regional scenarios of future climate are needed. One of the most
important sources of information for creating scenarios is the
output from general circulation models (GCMs) of the climate
system. However, current state-of-the-art GCMs are unable to
simulate accurately even the current seasonal cycle of climate on a
regional basis. Thus the simple technique of adding the difference
between 2xCO2 and 1xCO2 GCM simulations to current climatic
time series cannot produce scenarios with appropriate spatial and
temporal details without corrections for model deficiencies.
In this study a technique is developed to allow the information
from GCM simulations to be used, while accommodating for the
deficiencies. GCM output is combined with knowledge of the
regional climate to produce scenarios of the equilibrium climate
response to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration for
three case study regions, China, Sub-Saharan Africa and Venezuela,
for use in biological effects models. By combining the general
climate change calculated with several GCMs with the observed
patterns of interannual climate variability, reasonable scenarios of
temperature and precipitation variations can be created.
Generalizations of this procedure to other regions of the world are
Prepared by Alan Robock (email@example.com ) -
Last updated on April 2, 1999