Publications by Alan Robock on Nuclear Winter

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Refereed Journal Articles

  1. Robock, Alan, 1984: Snow and ice feedbacks prolong effects of nuclear winter. Nature, 310, 667-670.  PDF file

  2. Vogelmann, A. M., A. Robock and R. G. Ellingson, 1988: Effects of dirty snow in nuclear winter simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 5319-5332.  PDF file

  3. MacCracken, Michael C. and Alan D. Robock, 1988: A message of hope for a missing colleague. Environment, 30, No. 5, 5.  PDF file

  4. Robock, Alan, 1988: Enhancement of surface cooling due to forest fire smoke. Science, 242, 911-913.  PDF file

  5. Robock, Alan, 1989: Policy implications of nuclear winter and ideas for solutions. Ambio, 18, 360-366.  PDF file

  6. Robock, Alan, 1989: New models confirm nuclear winter. Bull. Atomic Sci., 45, No. 7, 32-35.  PDF file    Reprinted as:   Robock, Alan, 1990: Nuclear winter confirmed. National Forum - The Phi Kappa Phi Journal, 70, No. 1, 17-19.  PDF file  

  7. Robock, Alan, 1991: Surface cooling due to forest fire smoke. J. Geophys. Res., 96, 20,869-20,878. ABSTRACT  PDF file

  8. Robock, Alan, Richard P. Turco, Mark A. Harwell, Thomas P. Ackerman, Rigoberto Andressen, Hsin-shih Chang and M. V. K. Sivakumar, 1993: Use of general circulation model output in the creation of climate change scenarios for impact analysis. Climatic Change, 23, 293-335. ABSTRACT  PDF file

  9. Maytín, Carlos E., Miguel Acevedo, Ramón Jaimez, Rigoberto Andressen, Mark A. Harwell, Alan Robock, and Aura Azócar, 1995: Potential effects of global climatic change on the phenology and yield of maize in Venezuela. Climatic Change, 29, 189-211. ABSTRACT  PDF file

  10. Andressen, R., A. Robock, and M. Acevedo, 1996: Escenarios de cambio climático por efecto invernadero y deforestación para Venezuela.  Rev. Geog. Venz., 37, 221-250.   PDF file

  11. Robock, Alan, 1998: Scénario de notre dernier hiver [Scenario for our final winter], Le Temps Stratégique, No. 80, 6-15. (in French)

  12. Toon, Owen B., Richard P. Turco, Alan Robock, Charles Bardeen, Luke Oman, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov, 2007:  Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism.  Atm. Chem. Phys., 7, 1973-2002.  PDF file  This paper supersedes the previous discussion version.  Russian translation (по русский)

  13. Robock, Alan, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. Stenchikov, Owen B. Toon, Charles Bardeen, and Richard P. Turco, 2007:  Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts.  Atm. Chem. Phys., 7, 2003-2012.  PDF file   Supplement caption  Supplement   This paper supersedes the previous discussion version.   Figures and animations    Russian translation (по русский)

  14. Toon, Owen B., Alan Robock, Richard P. Turco, Charles Bardeen, Luke Oman, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov, 2007:  Consequences of regional-scale nuclear conflicts.  Science, 315, 1224-1225.  PDF file

  15. Robock, Alan, Owen B. Toon, Richard P. Turco, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. Stenchikov, and Charles Bardeen, 2007: The continuing environmental threat of nuclear weapons:  Integrated policy responses needed.  EOS, 88, 228, 231, doi:10.1029/2007ES001816.  PDF file

  16. Robock, Alan, Luke Oman, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov, 2007:  Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences.  J. Geophys. Res., 112, D13107, doi:2006JD008235.  PDF file   Russian translation (по русский)  Featured as a Research Highlight in Nature.
  17. Toon, Owen B., Alan Robock, and Richard P. Turco, 2008:  Environmental consequences of nuclear war.  Physics Today, 61, No. 12, 37-42.  PDF file

  18. Robock, Alan, and Owen Brian Toon, 2010:  Local nuclear war, global suffering.  Scientific American, 302, 74-81.  PDF file

  19. Robock, Alan, 2010: Nuclear winter. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1, 418-427. (Invited paper)   PDF file

  20. Robock, Alan, 2010: New START, Eyjafjallajökull, and Nuclear Winter. Eos, 91 (47), 444-445, doi:10.1029/2010ES003201.   PDF file

  21. Robock, Alan, 2011: Nuclear winter is a real and present danger. Nature, 473, 275-276.   PDF file

  22. Robock, Alan, and Owen B. Toon, 2012: Self-assured destruction: The climate impacts of nuclear war, Bull. Atomic Scientists, 68(5), 66-74, doi:10.1177/0096340212459127. (Invited article)   PDF file

  23. Xia, Lili, and Alan Robock, 2013: Impacts of a nuclear war in South Asia on rice production in mainland China. Climatic Change, 116, 357-372, doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0475-8.    PDF file

  24. Özdoğan, Mutlu, Alan Robock, and Christopher Kucharik, 2013: Impacts of a nuclear war in South Asia on soybean and maize production in the Midwest United States. Climatic Change, 116, 373-387, doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0518-1.   PDF file

  25. Mills, Michael J., Owen B. Toon, Julia Lee-Taylor, and Alan Robock, 2014: Multi-decadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict. Earth’s Future, 2, 161-176, doi:10.1002/2013EF000205.    PDF file 

  26. Xia, Lili, Alan Robock, Michael Mills, Andrea Stenke, and Ira Helfand, 2015: Decadal reduction of Chinese agriculture after a regional nuclear war. Earth’s Future, 3, 37-48, doi:10.1002/2014EF000283.     PDF file

  27. Baum, Seth D., David C. Denkenberger, Joshua M. Pearce, Alan Robock, and Richelle Winkler, 2015: Resilience to global food supply catastrophes. Environment, Systems, and Decisions, 35, 301-313, doi:10.1007/s10669-015-9549-2.    PDF file

  28. Robock, Alan, 2015: Cloud control: Climatologist Alan Robock on the effects of geoengineering and nuclear war. Bull. Atomic Sci., 71(3), 1-7, doi:10.1177/0096340215581353.    PDF file

  29. Toon, Owen B., Alan Robock, Michael Mills, and Lili Xia, 2017: Asia treads the nuclear path, unaware that self-assured destruction would result from nuclear war. J. Asian Studies, 76, 437-456, doi:10.1017/S0021911817000080.     PDF file

  30. Robock, Alan, and Brian Zambri, 2018: Did smoke from city fires in World War II cause global cooling? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 123, 10,314-10,325, doi:10.1029/2018JD028922.     PDF file

  31. Coupe, Joshua, Charles G. Bardeen, Alan Robock, and Owen B. Toon, 2019: Nuclear winter responses to global nuclear war in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 4 and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 124, 8522-8543, doi:10.1029/2019JD030509.     PDF file

  32. Yu, Pengfei, Owen B. Toon, Charles G. Bardeen, Yunqian Zhu, Karen H. Rosenlof, Robert W. Portmann, Troy D. Thornberry, Ru-Shan Gao, Sean M. Davis, Eric T. Wolf, Joost de Gouw, David A. Peterson, Michael D. Fromm, and Alan Robock, 2019: Black carbon lofts wildfire smoke high into the stratosphere to form a persistent plume. Science, 365, 587-590, doi:10.1126/science.aax1748.     PDF file

  33. Toon, Owen B., Charles G. Bardeen, Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Hans Kristensen, Matthew McKinzie, R. J. Peterson, Cheryl Harrison, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Richard P. Turco, 2019: Rapid expansion of nuclear arsenals by Pakistan and India portends regional and global catastrophe. Science Advances, 5, eaay5478, doi:10.1126/sciadv.aay5478.    Full paper and PDF file

  34. Robock, Alan, Owen B. Toon, and Charles G. Bardeen, 2019: Comment on “Climate impact of a regional nuclear weapons exchange: An improved assessment based on detailed source calculations” by Reisner et al. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 124, 12,953-12,958, doi:10.1029/2019JD030777.    PDF file

  35. Robock, Alan, Owen B. Toon, Charles G. Bardeen, Lili Xia, Hans Kristensen, Matthew McKinzie, R. J. Peterson, Cheryl Harrison, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Richard P. Turco, 2019: How an India-Pakistan nuclear war could start–and have global consequences. Bull. Atomic Scientists, 75:6, 273-279, doi:10.1080/00963402.2019.1680049.  PDF file

  36. Lovenduski, Nicole S., Cheryl S. Harrison, Holly Olivarez, Charles G. Bardeen, Owen B. Toon, Joshua Coupe, Alan Robock, Tyler Rohr, and Samantha Stevenson, 2020: The potential impact of nuclear conflict on ocean acidification. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2019GL086246.    PDF file

  37. Jägermeyr, Jonas, Alan Robock, Joshua Elliott, Christoph Müller, Lili Xia, Nikolay Khabarov, Christian Folberth, Erwin Schmid, Wenfeng Liu, Florian Zabel, Sam S. Rabin, Michael J. Puma, Alison C. Heslin, James Franke, Ian Foster, Senthold Asseng, Charles G. Bardeen, Owen B. Toon, and Cynthia Rosenzweig, 2020: A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 117, 7071-7081, doi:10.1073/pnas.1919049117.    PDF file

  38. Scherrer, Kim J. N., Cheryl S. Harrison, Ryan F. Heneghan, Eric Galbraith, Charles G. Bardeen, Joshua Coupe, Jonas Jägermeyr, Nicole S. Lovenduski, August Luna, Alan Robock, Jessica Stevens, Samantha Stevenson, Owen B. Toon, and Lili Xia, 2020: Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war.  Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 117(47), 29,748-29,758, doi:10.1073/pnas.2008256117.    PDF file

  39. Coupe, Joshua, Samantha Stevenson, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Tyler Rohr, Cheryl S. Harrison, Alan Robock, Holly Olivarez, Charles G. Bardeen, and Owen B. Toon, 2021: Nuclear Niño response observed in simulations of nuclear war scenarios. Communications Earth & Environment, 2, 18, doi:10.1038/s43247-020-00088-1.     PDF file

  40. Coupe, Joshua, and Alan Robock, 2021: The influence of stratospheric soot and sulfate aerosols on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime atmospheric circulation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 126, e2020JD034513, doi:10.1029/2020JD034513.   PDF file

  41. Bardeen, Charles G., Douglas E. Kinnison, Owen B. Toon, Michael J. Mills, Francis Vitt, Lili Xia, Jonas Jägermeyr, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kim J. N. Scherrer, Margot Clyne, and Alan Robock, 2021: Extreme ozone loss following nuclear war resulting in enhanced surface ultraviolet radiation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 126, e2021JD035079, doi:10.1029/2021JD035079.   PDF file

  42. Robock, Alan, and Stewart C. Prager, 2021: Geoscientists can help reduce the threat of nuclear weapons, Eos, 102, doi:10.1029/2021EO210633. Published on 2 December 2021.  Link

  43. Hochman, Gal, Hainan Zhang, Lili Xia, Alan Robock, Saketh Aleti, Dominique Y. van der Mensbrugghe, and Jonas Jägermeyr, 2022: Economic incentives modify agricultural impacts of nuclear war. Env. Res. Lett., 17, 054003, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac61c7.    PDF file

  44. Harrison, Cheryl S., Tyler Rohr, Alice DuVivier, Elizabeth A. Maroon, Scott Bachman, Charles G. Bardeen, Joshua Coupe, Victoria Garza, Ryan Heneghan, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Philipp Neubauer, Victor Rangel, Alan Robock, Kim Scherrer, Samantha Stevenson, and Owen B. Toon, 2022: A new ocean state after nuclear war. AGU Advances, 3, e2021AV000610, doi:10.1029/2021AV000610.    PDF file

  45. Xia, Lili, Alan Robock, Kim Scherrer, Cheryl S. Harrison, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Isabelle Weindl, Jonas Jägermeyr, Charles G. Bardeen, Owen B. Toon, and Ryan Heneghan, 2022: Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection. Nature Food, 3, 586-596, doi:10.1038/s43016-022-00573-0.  PDF file

  46. Coupe, Joshua, Cheryl Harrison, Alan Robock, Alice DuVivier, Elizabeth Maroon, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Scott Bachman, Laura Landrum, and Charles Bardeen, 2023: Sudden reduction of Antarctic sea ice despite cooling after nuclear war. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 128, e2022JC018774, doi:10.1029/2022JC018774.  PDF file

  47. Robock, Alan, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Joshua Coupe, Owen B. Toon, and Charles G. Bardeen, 2023: Opinion: How nuclear winter has saved the world, so far. Atm. Chem. Phys., 23, 6691-6701, doi:10.5194/acp-23-6691-2023.   PDF file

Refereed Book Chapters

  1. Robock, Alan, 1987: Nuclear winter: climatic consequences of nuclear war. Chap. 1 (of Part 9) in Perspectives on Nuclear War and Peace Education, Robert Ehrlich, Ed., (Greenwood, New York), 157-168, 175-176.

  2. Robock, Alan, 1988: Surface temperature effects of forest fire smoke plumes. in Aerosols and Climate, Peter Hobbs and M. Patrick McCormick, Eds., (Deepak, Hampton, VA), 435-442.

  3. Robock, Alan, 1991: Nuclear winter: global horrendous death. Chapter 13 in Horrendous Death, Health, and Well-Being, Daniel Leviton, Ed., (Hemisphere, New York), 243-264. (Invited paper)

  4. Robock, Alan, 1991: Surface cooling due to smoke from biomass burning. Chapter 57 in Global Biomass Burning, Joel S. Levine, Ed., (MIT Press, Cambridge), 463-476.

  5. Robock, Alan, 1996: Nuclear winter. in Encyclopedia of Weather and Climate, Volume 2, edited by Stephen H. Schneider, (Oxford Univ. Press, New York), 534-536. (Invited paper)
  6. Robock, Alan, 2008: Nuclear winter. In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Cutler J. Cleveland, Ed. (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment).

  7. Robock, Alan, 2008:  Climate effects of nuclear war.  Chapter 3.4 in Global Politics in a Changing World, Fourth Edition, Richard W. Mansbach and Edward Rhodes, Eds., Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, New York, 96-99.  PDF file

  8. Robock, Alan, 2011: Nuclear winter. in Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather, Second Edition, Volume 2, Stephen H. Schneider, Michael Mastrandrea, and Terry L. Root, Eds., (Oxford Univ. Press, New York). (Invited paper) 

  9. Robock, Alan, 2015: Nuclear winter. In Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, Second Edition, Volume 2, Gerald R. North (editor-in-chief), John Pyle and Fuqing Zhang (editors), (Elsevier, Amsterdam), 90-101. (Invited paper) 

  10. Toon, Owen B., Alan Robock, Michael Mills, Lili Xia, and Charles Bardeen, 2018: Climatic consequences and agricultural impacts of nuclear conflicts. Chapter 24 in Global Change and Future Earth: The Geoscience Perspective, Tom Beer, Jianping Li, and Keith Alverson, Eds., (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK), 328-340. (Invited paper) 

Magazine Articles

  1. Robock, Alan, 2007:  Climate effects of a regional nuclear conflict. IPRC Climate, 7, no. 1, 16-18.   PDF file
  2. Robock, Alan, 2008:  Time to bury a dangerous legacy – part II: Climatic catastrophe would follow regional nuclear conflict.  YaleGlobal Online

  3. Robock, Alan, 2015: A Modest Proposal, Huffington Post.     PDF file

  4. Robock, Alan, and Owen B. Toon, 2016:  Let’s End the Peril of a Nuclear Winter, Op-ed, New York Times, February 11, 2016.

Book Reviews

  1. Robock, Alan, 1986: Review of Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War, SCOPE 28 and Planet Earth in Jeopardy. J. Climatology, 7, 100-102. (Invited paper)

  2. Robock, Alan, 1991: The imparsible dream? [Review of A Path Where No Man Thought: Nuclear Winter and the End of the Arms Race.] Bull. Atomic Sci., 47, No. 2, 43-44. (Invited paper)

Conference Proceedings

  1. Robock, Alan, 1985: Comments on "The Potential Effects of Nuclear War on the Climate," a report to the United States Congress, by Caspar W. Weinberger, Secretary of Defense. Nuclear Winter, Joint Hearing before the Committee on Science and Technology and the Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives, March 14, 1985, (U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington), 274-277.

  2. Robock, Alan, Andrew M. Vogelmann and Robert G. Ellingson, 1986: Dirty snow effects are of small climatic consequence in nuclear winter scenarios. Technical Papers Presented at the Defense Nuclear Agency Global Effects Review, Vol. III, DASIAC-TN-86-29-V3, (Defense Nuclear Agency, Washington), 155-174.

  3. Robock, Alan, 1987: Surface temperature effects of forest fire smoke plumes. Technical Papers Presented at the Defense Nuclear Agency Global Effects Review-7-9 April 1987, Vol. II, DASIAC-TN-87-35-V2, (Defense Nuclear Agency, Washington), 69-87. (Invited paper)

  4. Robock, Alan, 1988: Cooling from 1987 forest fires. Technical Papers Presented at the Defense Nuclear Agency Global Effects Review - 19-21 April 1988, Vol. II, MRC-R-1173-87-35-V2,, (Mission Research Corporation, Santa Barbara, CA), 225-242. (Invited paper)

Prepared by Alan Robock ( - Last updated on June 19, 2023